36 Mill St

Springville, NY 14141

$67,900B

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · Built 1860 · MultiFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$356
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $1,088/mo
• Annual: $13,054/yr
• Cap rate: 25.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.66%
• DSCR: 4.06
• 1% rule: 3.22%
• Cash to close: $19,012

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $68k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $469 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#213 in NY, #3,281 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment D+, commute F.
• Springville-Griffith Institute Central School District (town): math 47% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #385 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $68k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 2.2% in Springville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.