Plan 1469 Plan

Brighton, CO 80601

$382,990B-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,468 sqft · Built — · MultiFamily · Active · 651 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax + insurance: −$708
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,269
• Net cashflow: $1,837/mo
• Annual: $22,043/yr
• Cap rate: 11.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.52%
• DSCR: 1.82
• 1% rule: 1.42%
• Cash to close: $119,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $383k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $383k).
• It's been on market 651 days — a 12% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $337k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#242 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• School District 27J (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #46 of 86 in CO (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,299 units permitted in Adams County in 2024 (343 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Adams County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $62k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $119k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 3.2% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,043/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($105k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 651 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.