2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
934 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 429 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$996/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$293
Tax + insurance
−$140
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$209
Net cashflow
$354/mo
Annual
$4,248/yr
Cap rate
13.90%
Cash-on-cash
27.18%
DSCR
2.21
1% rule
1.78%
Cash to close
$15,630
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($996 rent vs $56k).
It's been on market 429 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#128 in TX, #3,885 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
Pampa ISD (town): math 38% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #482 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Wilson El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 370 students, 88% FRL); Pampa J H (math 32% / reading 31%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 738 students, 67% FRL); Pampa H S (math 49% / reading 37%, grade F, #713 of 1,632 statewide, top 44%, 1,046 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 54% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
Market conditions: 305 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7 units permitted in Gray County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Gray County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 8.3% in Pampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 429 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— Signs of significant wear
Major: siding
— Weathered and peeling
Major: landscaping
— Overgrown and unkempt
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· Data 4 months agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29