2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
496 sqft ·
Built 1975
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 363 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,230/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$341
Tax + insurance
−$84
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$258
Net cashflow
$547/mo
Annual
$6,561/yr
Cap rate
16.39%
Cash-on-cash
36.05%
DSCR
2.60
1% rule
1.89%
Cash to close
$18,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
It's been on market 363 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $7k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,455 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Lone Oak ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #310 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lone Oak El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 489 students, 45% FRL); Lone Oak Middle (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 254 students, 48% FRL); Lone Oak H S (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 340 students, 43% FRL).
Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 4.5% in East Tawakoni — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 363 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WCQ2RQ06CY6YTZ
· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29