431 W King Ave

Kingsville, TX 78363

$110,000C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,339 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,380/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $346/mo
• Annual: $4,150/yr
• Cap rate: 10.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.47%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $346 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#364 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Kingsville ISD (town): math 13% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #800 of 826 in TX (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Kleberg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kleberg County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.4% in Kingsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.