942 CR 461

Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$149,400C

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,372/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$783
• Tax + insurance: −$549
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $-261/mo
• Annual: $-3,132/yr
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $41,832

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (30.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $122k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.