33 Mountain Rd

Irvington, NY 10533

$652,800D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,655 sqft · Built 1917 · SingleFamily · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,906/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,423
• Tax + insurance: −$1,579
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,240
• Net cashflow: $-336/mo
• Annual: $-4,038/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.21%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $182,784

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $653k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $593k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $591k (9.5% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($643k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $591k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $20k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#271 in NY, #4,308 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Irvington Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #23 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dows Lane (K-3) School (math 77% / reading 92%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 532 students, 6% FRL); Irvington Middle School (math 82% / reading 89%, grade A+, #11 of 729 statewide, top 1%, 426 students, 9% FRL); Irvington High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 548 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1917 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.5% in Irvington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($174k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1917 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.