20152 Juniper Ave

Lynwood, IL 60411

$215,000B-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,577 sqft · Built 1985 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,403/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $496/mo
• Annual: $5,950/yr
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $215k).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $209k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#635 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215 (suburban): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #563 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 224 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.5% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.5% in Lynwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,403/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.