530 Shorepines Pl

Coos Bay, OR 97420

$165,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · Built 1993 · Other · Active · 51 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,942/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $516/mo
• Annual: $6,192/yr
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.40%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $516 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#257 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Coos Bay SD 9 (town): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #45 of 58 in OR (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside School (315 students, 50% FRL); Sunset School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #377 of 412 statewide, top 93%, 360 students, 56% FRL); Marshfield Senior High School (math 17% / reading 54%, grade F, #89 of 143 statewide, top 62%, 835 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 344 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 122 units permitted in Coos County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Coos County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $165k implies a 416% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.2% in Coos Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.