2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,180 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Manufactured
· Active
· 124 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,843/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$125
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$387
Net cashflow
$938/mo
Annual
$11,253/yr
Cap rate
21.30%
Cash-on-cash
53.59%
DSCR
3.38
1% rule
2.46%
Cash to close
$21,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $938 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $66k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#451 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety D-.
St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Southern Oaks Middle School (math 39% / reading 43%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 645 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $8k; list at $75k implies a 837% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 6.4% in River Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Landscaping
— Overgrown bushes need trimming.
Moderate: Exterior paint
— White siding shows some discoloration and wear.
Minor: Landscaping
— Sparse landscaping could benefit from some attention to enhance curb appeal.
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· Data 19 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29