122 NE 204th St #21

Miami Gardens, FL 33179

$106,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 715 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 495 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,674/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$556
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$303
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $-70/mo
• Annual: $-834/yr
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.44%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.58%
• Cash to close: $29,680

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $106k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-834/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $94k (11.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $106k).
• It's been on market 495 days — a 12% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $93k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $733 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#338 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D-, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Norland Elementary School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,932 of 2,144 statewide, top 91%, 562 students, 77% FRL); Andover Middle School (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 452 students, 71% FRL); Miami Norland Senior High School (math 16% / reading 29%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 1,580 students, 70% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 573 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask is 259% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.1% in Miami Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 495 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.