701 W 4th St

Town of Pecos, TX 79772

$179,500B

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,816 sqft · Built 1950 · Other · Pending · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$941
• Tax + insurance: −$241
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $1,030/mo
• Annual: $12,358/yr
• Cap rate: 13.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.59%
• DSCR: 2.09
• 1% rule: 1.56%
• Cash to close: $50,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pecos-Barstow-Toyah ISD (town): math 28% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #652 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pecos H S (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,436 of 1,632 statewide, top 88%, 766 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 22 units permitted in Reeves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Reeves County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-1.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.