1649 E Manchester Rd

Manchester, VT 05255

$609,000B

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,050 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Active · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $11,300/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,194
• Tax + insurance: −$683
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,373
• Net cashflow: $5,050/mo
• Annual: $60,602/yr
• Cap rate: 16.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.54%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $170,520

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $609k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($11k rent vs $609k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($572k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $572k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#80 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $298k; list at $609k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $171k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 5.3% in Manchester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.