Pinehollow Plan

Fort Worth, TX 76036

$293,999F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,656 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,354/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,917
• Tax + insurance: −$609
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-667/mo
• Annual: $-8,008/yr
• Cap rate: 4.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.82%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $102,376

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-667 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sidney H Poynter (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 422 students, 81% FRL); H F Stevens Middle (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 747 students, 84% FRL); Crowley H S (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 2,351 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 52% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1434 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 55d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.