3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 404 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,925/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,154
Tax + insurance
−$143
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$404
Net cashflow
$225/mo
Annual
$2,696/yr
Cap rate
7.52%
Cash-on-cash
4.38%
DSCR
1.19
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$61,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (12.5% below list).
It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $193k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#391 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Rock Crusher Elementary School (math 70% / reading 56%, grade B, #582 of 2,144 statewide, top 28%, 665 students, 68% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
Market conditions: 307 active listings in the ZIP; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $120k; list at $220k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 5.9% in Homosassa Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
At $1,925/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 113% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29