6284 S Waterton Dr

Drexel Heights, AZ 85746

$149,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 252 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,656/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$248
• HOA: −$127
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $152/mo
• Annual: $1,821/yr
• Cap rate: 7.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.37%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 1.11%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $152 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#73 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Frances J Warren Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 162 students, 76% FRL); Pistor Middle School (math 7% / reading 16%, grade F, #180 of 218 statewide, top 83%, 724 students, 74% FRL); Pueblo High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #267 of 381 statewide, top 72%, 1,831 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 37y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $68k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $149k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.6% in Drexel Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.