406A Chapel Hill Rd

Parishville, NY 13625

$145,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-168/mo
• Annual: $-2,015/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-168 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (27.6% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $105k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#997 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Parishville-Hopkinton Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #326 of 755 in NY (top 43%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parishville-Hopkinton Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 176 students, 53% FRL); Parishville-Hopkinton Junior-Senior High School (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 169 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 32% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $145k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.