38905 Pine St

Umatilla, FL 32784

$379,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,033/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-1,407/mo
• Annual: $-16,882/yr
• Cap rate: 1.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.87%
• DSCR: 0.29
• 1% rule: 0.27%
• Cash to close: $106,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (65.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (72.8% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (72.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#300 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 223 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $380k implies a 708% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.8% vs local median 2.9% in Umatilla — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.