8125 Brewton Bnd

Ball Ground, GA 30107

$489,900D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,386 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Pending · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,242/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,569
• Tax + insurance: −$639
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $-747/mo
• Annual: $-8,964/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.54%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $137,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $490k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-747 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $358k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (33.8% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($483k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $324k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#80 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poole'S Mill Elementary (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D-, #327 of 1,228 statewide, top 27%, 1,090 students, 15% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #56 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 1,032 students, 14% FRL); North Forsyth High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 2,065 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 1.5% in Ball Ground — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.