3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,232 sqft ·
Built 1958
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,205/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$111
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$253
Net cashflow
$683/mo
Annual
$8,201/yr
Cap rate
33.63%
Cash-on-cash
97.64%
DSCR
5.34
1% rule
4.02%
Cash to close
$8,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $683 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $27k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Oak Forest Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #337 of 375 statewide, top 94%, 318 students, 100% FRL); Peeples Middle School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 179 statewide, top 79%, 298 students, 100% FRL); Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 38 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WGANE03N10AWWJ
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29