3 bd · 18.0 ba ·
10,990 sqft ·
Built 1954
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 186 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$38,614/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$18,354
Tax + insurance
−$5,078
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$8,109
Net cashflow
$7,073/mo
Annual
$84,872/yr
Cap rate
8.72%
Cash-on-cash
8.66%
DSCR
1.39
1% rule
1.10%
Cash to close
$980,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/18.0-bath multifamily listed at $3.50M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($85k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($39k rent vs $3.50M).
It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.08M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $3.08M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $24k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $105k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 55/100 on livability (#871 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
Santa Ana Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #329 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
29 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $350k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $1.90M; list at $3.50M implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Ana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $38,614/mo this rent would consume 657% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 2626% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WGEJ0AD3ZJG7KK
· Data 10 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29