55 Mason Ln

Valley Falls, NY 12180

$209,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,692/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$274
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-38/mo
• Annual: $-458/yr
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $58,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-38 ($-458/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (19.4% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $169k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#591 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: schools C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Brunswick Central School District (Brittonkill) (rural): math 56% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #285 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $49k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $210k implies a 304% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.