415 Colina Ln

Coatesville, PA 19320

$239,900D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,346 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,925/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$413
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,103/yr
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (19.8% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $192k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#791 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Coatesville Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #457 of 539 in PA (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Coatesville Area Shs (math 33% / reading 24%, grade F, #358 of 437 statewide, top 82%, 1,412 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,513 units permitted in Chester County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chester County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.