3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
916 sqft ·
Built 1997
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 206 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,937/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$149
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$407
Net cashflow
$621/mo
Annual
$7,450/yr
Cap rate
11.43%
Cash-on-cash
18.35%
DSCR
1.82
1% rule
1.34%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $621 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#109 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: South Topsail Elementary (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 557 students, 34% FRL); Topsail Middle (math 64% / reading 65%, grade A-, #30 of 475 statewide, top 7%, 807 students, 20% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $19k; list at $145k implies a 663% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.1% in Hampstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WGNJD7C3A1T7R0
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29