10739 Baily St

Firestone, CO 80504

$138,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,562/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$1,042
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $25/mo
• Annual: $297/yr
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.77%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $38,780

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($297/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $138k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $958 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#44 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• St. Vrain Valley School District No. Re1J (suburban): math 32% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #23 of 86 in CO (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #357 of 966 statewide, top 40%, 468 students, 33% FRL); Coal Ridge Middle School (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #106 of 270 statewide, top 42%, 800 students, 32% FRL); Mead High School (math 34% / reading 59%, grade D-, #137 of 381 statewide, top 36%, 1,119 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 41% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 534 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.9% in Firestone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen countertops — cluttered and could be replaced
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — dated and could be updated
• Moderate: exterior paint — wooden siding could benefit from fresh paint