601 Harding Ave

Mills, WY 82644

$30,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 1974 · Other · Pending · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $876/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax + insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $489/mo
• Annual: $5,871/yr
• Cap rate: 25.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.89%
• DSCR: 4.11
• 1% rule: 2.92%
• Cash to close: $8,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $30k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($876 rent vs $30k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($207 loan paydown + $900 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 25.9% vs local median 3.0% in Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.