16031 NE 19th Pl

North Miami Beach, FL 33162

$825,000F

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 2,982 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax + insurance: −$1,375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$856
• Net cashflow: $-2,482/mo
• Annual: $-29,786/yr
• Cap rate: 2.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.89%
• DSCR: 0.43
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $231,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $825k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $466k (43.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $408k (50.6% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($776k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $408k (50.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#71 in FL, #1,177 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fulford Elementary School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 461 students, 64% FRL); John F. Kennedy Middle School (math 47% / reading 55%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,074 students, 67% FRL); North Miami Beach Senior High (math 13% / reading 24%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,149 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Miami-Dade average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $175k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.8% in North Miami Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $4,075/mo this rent would consume 81% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 21% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation needs trimming
• Minor: Exterior paint — No visible damage