2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
3,472 sqft ·
Built 2000
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,040/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$784
Tax + insurance
−$166
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$218
Net cashflow
$-128/mo
Annual
$-1,537/yr
Cap rate
5.27%
Cash-on-cash
-3.67%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$41,860
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (15.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (30.4% below list).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $104k (30.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Phelps County R-III (rural): math 55% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #42 of 535 in MO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Phelps Co. Elem. (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #284 of 1,115 statewide, top 30%, 157 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 162 units permitted in Phelps County in 2024 (83 in 5+ unit buildings).
Phelps County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WJ3P06C329H6BM
· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29