949 Brown Rock

New Braunfels, TX 78130

$439,000D

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,249 sqft · Built 2011 · MultiFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$1,033
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,495/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-62/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $417k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $413k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Freiheit El (math 37% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 910 students, 55% FRL); Canyon Middle (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,175 students, 47% FRL); Canyon H S (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,348 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1931 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.3% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,127/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($83k/yr) (locally 2912% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?