905 Shepherd St

Morgan, TX 76690

$140,000B+

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · Built 2001 · MultiFamily · Active · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$303
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $1,009/mo
• Annual: $12,112/yr
• Cap rate: 14.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.90%
• DSCR: 2.37
• 1% rule: 1.85%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3.0-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $505/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,291 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Morgan ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #895 of 1,141 in TX (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Bosque County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bosque County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.