2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
936 sqft ·
Built 1979
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 30 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,572/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$939
Tax + insurance
−$352
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$330
Net cashflow
$-49/mo
Annual
$-588/yr
Cap rate
5.96%
Cash-on-cash
-1.17%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.88%
Cash to close
$50,120
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-588/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $170k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (12.2% below list).
It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $157k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Stephen Foster Elementary School (math 46% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 458 students, 65% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 847 students, 56% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 1,873 students, 47% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $106k; list at $179k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WKBSSK4CNM8T47
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29