66 Addison Dr

Montpelier, VT 05602

$103,799D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 570 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 341 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,364/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$544
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$573
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,557/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.80%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $29,064

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $104k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $73k (29.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $717 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in VT, #670 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 42% of rent.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $104k implies a 1630% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.4% in Montpelier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.