3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,362 sqft ·
Built 2020
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 75 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,735/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,143
Tax + insurance
−$280
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$364
Net cashflow
$-53/mo
Annual
$-636/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.04%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$61,040
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-636/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (20.4% below list).
It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($205k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $174k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#188 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Chahta-Ima Elementary School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #224 of 646 statewide, top 37%, 325 students, 67% FRL); L.P. Monteleone Junior High School (math 48% / reading 69%, grade B, #13 of 218 statewide, top 6%, 422 students, 36% FRL); Lakeshore High School (math 42% / reading 61%, grade D+, #35 of 265 statewide, top 13%, 949 students, 34% FRL).
Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $186k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Lacombe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WKJTF473VTD9CQ
· Data 20 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29