138 Oakland Beach Ave

Rye, NY 10580

$2,695,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,742 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,195/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$14,133
• Tax + insurance: −$3,807
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,931
• Net cashflow: $-10,675/mo
• Annual: $-128,105/yr
• Cap rate: 1.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.98%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.34%
• Cash to close: $754,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $2.69M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11k ($-128k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $809k (70.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $919k (65.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $809k (70.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $198k of equity ($19k loan paydown + $179k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Rye City School District (suburban): math 89% / reading 93% proficiency, ranked #4 of 590 in NY (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Osborn School (math 82% / reading 92%, grade A+, #69 of 2,108 statewide, top 4%, 455 students, 0% FRL); Rye Middle School (math 77% / reading 92%, grade A+, #13 of 729 statewide, top 2%, 685 students, 0% FRL); Rye High School (math 100% / reading 87%, grade A+, #141 of 1,100 statewide, top 13%, 903 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 0% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 954 units permitted in Westchester County in 2024 (649 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Westchester County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.79M; list at $2.69M implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$316k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($250k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.