3913 Thalia Trace Ct

Virginia Beach, VA 23452

$220,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 981 sqft · Built 1983 · Townhouse · Under Contract · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,707/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-829/yr
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.35%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-829/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Thalia Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 593 students, 70% FRL); Independence Middle (math 62% / reading 78%, grade A, #80 of 342 statewide, top 24%, 1,189 students, 48% FRL); Princess Anne High (math 76% / reading 89%, grade A, #36 of 319 statewide, top 12%, 1,717 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 28% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 232 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $150k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.