3214 Deerchase Wynd

Durham, NC 27712

$515,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,452 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$616
• HOA: −$11
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$882
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-121/yr
• Cap rate: 6.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.08%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-121/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $513k (0.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $420k (18.4% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $420k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Easley Elementary (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #249 of 1,410 statewide, top 20%, 450 students, 36% FRL); Brogden Middle (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #429 of 475 statewide, top 91%, 742 students, 100% FRL); Riverside High (math 49% / reading 42%, grade D-, #347 of 535 statewide, top 65%, 1,812 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $515k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.