3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,563 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 140 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,954/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$624
Tax + insurance
−$181
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$410
Net cashflow
$738/mo
Annual
$8,861/yr
Cap rate
14.30%
Cash-on-cash
28.59%
DSCR
2.27
1% rule
1.64%
Cash to close
$33,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $119k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $738 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $13k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#187 in NY, #2,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Syracuse City School District (urban): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #590 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Syracuse Latin School (math 31% / reading 62%, grade D-, #1,262 of 2,108 statewide, top 60%, 642 students, 42% FRL); Clary Middle School (math 2% / reading 14%, grade F, #724 of 729 statewide, top 99%, 275 students, 89% FRL); Corcoran High School (math 61% / reading 62%, grade B-, #842 of 1,100 statewide, top 77%, 1,252 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Syracuse City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $51k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $64k; list at $119k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WMRE1KBP4V9ESF
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29