3014 23rd St

New York, NY 11102

$399,200D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,770 sqft · Built 1970 · Townhouse · Active · 158 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,096/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,093
• Tax + insurance: −$1,158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-806/mo
• Annual: $-9,671/yr
• Cap rate: 3.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.65%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $111,776

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-806 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (35.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (22.4% below list).
• It's been on market 158 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $257k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $655 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,302 units permitted in Queens County in 2024 (4,918 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Queens County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 158 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?