5101 River Rd #712

Bethesda, MD 20816

$209,000D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,026 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$1,014
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-182/mo
• Annual: $-2,179/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-182 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (15.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $209k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $177k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#67 in MD, #2,463 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Somerset Elementary (math 43% / reading 55%, grade D, #43 of 860 statewide, top 5%, 338 students, 21% FRL); Westland Middle (math 30% / reading 65%, grade C-, #12 of 225 statewide, top 5%, 845 students, 18% FRL); Bethesda-Chevy Chase High (math 71% / reading 87%, grade A-, #19 of 222 statewide, top 8%, 2,335 students, 26% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Montgomery County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 0.8% in Bethesda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($233k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.