54 Hayground Rd

Water Mill, NY 11976

$2,295,000A

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 972 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 97 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $29,482/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$12,035
• Tax + insurance: −$4,285
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,191
• Net cashflow: $6,970/mo
• Annual: $83,640/yr
• Cap rate: 10.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.88%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $642,600

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $2.29M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($84k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($29k rent vs $2.29M).
• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($2.09M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.09M (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $214k of equity ($16k loan paydown + $198k appreciation (8.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#410 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, housing F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+30.1%/yr); 52 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.00M (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.17M; list at $2.29M implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.6% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $643k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$343k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $29,482/mo this rent would consume 196% of the median local household income ($180k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.