1309/1311 Hickory St

Jourdanton, TX 78026

$92,000B-

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 784 sqft · Built 1989 · MultiFamily · Active · 999 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $976/mo
• Annual: $11,710/yr
• Cap rate: 19.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.46%
• DSCR: 3.02
• 1% rule: 2.22%
• Cash to close: $25,760

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $92k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $976 ($12k/yr) — positive. Per door: $488/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $92k).
• It's been on market 999 days — a 12% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#474 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Jourdanton ISD (town): math 46% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #258 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 164 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $133k (59%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 3.5% in Jourdanton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 999 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant damage and wear
• Major: roof — No roof visible in photos
• Major: interior walls and paint — No interior walls or paint visible in photos
• Major: bathrooms — No bathrooms visible in photos
• Major: kitchen — No kitchen visible in photos
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanicals visible in photos