38 Desmond Run

Sicklerville, NJ 08081

$239,000C+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1976 · Townhouse · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,792/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax + insurance: −$436
• HOA: −$20
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$586
• Net cashflow: $496/mo
• Annual: $5,951/yr
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.89%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $66,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $239k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Winslow Township School District (suburban): math 11% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #387 of 472 in NJ (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,018 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (509 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 41% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.7% in Sicklerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.