2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
864 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,189/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$214
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$250
Net cashflow
$-35/mo
Annual
$-421/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.04%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$40,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-421/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (18.0% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $119k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Canales El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 654 students, 97% FRL); Faulk Middle (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 976 students, 99% FRL); Lopez Early College H S (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,831 students, 95% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WNM53SFMK2QYWH
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29