6829 Fm 314 N

Brownsboro, TX 75756

$277,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,230/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax + insurance: −$537
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-1,018/mo
• Annual: $-12,221/yr
• Cap rate: 1.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.76%
• DSCR: 0.30
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $77,560

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $101k (63.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $123k (55.6% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($269k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (63.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,155 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.9% vs local median 1.3% in Brownsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 63% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.