802-83 Longleaf Dr W

Auburn, AL 36832

$315,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,877 sqft · Built 2003 · Condo · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,823/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$189
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-136/mo
• Annual: $-1,629/yr
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (10.4% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $282k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#6 in AL, #1,842 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Auburn City (urban): math 51% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #7 of 129 in AL (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ogletree Elementary School (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B+, #33 of 627 statewide, top 5%, 511 students, 25% FRL); Drake Middle School (math 44% / reading 69%, grade B, #16 of 257 statewide, top 6%, 711 students, 31% FRL); Auburn High School (math 54% / reading 50%, grade D+, #11 of 305 statewide, top 4%, 2,143 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 28% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 368 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,858 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (113 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lee County population projected at +54% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $178k; list at $315k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.7% in Auburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,823/mo this rent would consume 79% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 2503% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.