2429 121st Cir NE Unit D

Blaine, MN 55449

$285,000D-

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,448 sqft · Built 2010 · Condo · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,464/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax + insurance: −$390
• HOA: −$310
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-247/mo
• Annual: $-2,969/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $79,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $241k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spring Lake Park Public Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #162 of 301 in MN (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Blaine — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.