207 S Ellis St

New Boston, TX 75570

$80,000B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 184 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,329/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $443/mo
• Annual: $5,312/yr
• Cap rate: 12.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.71%
• DSCR: 2.06
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,178 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• New Boston ISD (town): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #518 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.