3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,974 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,941/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,049
Tax + insurance
−$475
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$408
Net cashflow
$9/mo
Annual
$110/yr
Cap rate
6.35%
Cash-on-cash
0.20%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$56,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($110/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (3.0% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,637 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
Manheim Central SD (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #242 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Manheim Central Ms (math 27% / reading 49%, grade F, #283 of 512 statewide, top 57%, 848 students, 42% FRL); Manheim Central Shs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 935 students, 31% FRL).
Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $72k; list at $200k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WPK438AME4TKD1
· Data 9 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29