Pike (Pin Oak) Plan

O'Fallon, MO 63368

$54,995D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 546 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 326 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,216/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$630
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-594/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.86%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 2.21%
• Cash to close: $15,399

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-594/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $48k (13.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wentzville R-IV (suburban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View Elem. (math 35% / reading 49%, grade F, #481 of 1,115 statewide, top 46%, 708 students, 19% FRL); Frontier Middle (math 49% / reading 55%, grade C+, #55 of 391 statewide, top 14%, 1,255 students, 11% FRL) — zoned schools at 15% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 52% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 376 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 2,021 units permitted in St. Charles County in 2024 (568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Charles County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in O'Fallon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 12% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.