3 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,176 sqft ·
Built 1988
· Townhouse
· Active
· 91 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,367/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,023
Tax + insurance
−$444
HOA
−$155
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$497
Net cashflow
$249/mo
Annual
$2,987/yr
Cap rate
7.82%
Cash-on-cash
5.47%
DSCR
1.24
1% rule
1.21%
Cash to close
$54,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $177k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#125 in IL, #2,172 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, commute F.
Round Lake CUSD 116 (suburban): math 7% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #560 of 620 in IL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 948 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (424 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lake County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $85k; list at $195k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.8% in Round Lake Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-WQ5W448KQCC98D
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29